Big Bash League, Women: Brisbane Heat vs Sydney Sixers

1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Sydney Sixers (14%) · Sydney Sixers at 74¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 6

Brisbane Heat26¢Sydney Sixers74¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sydney Sixers

Consensus Traders

Sydney Sixers 14%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.4K

Combined PnL

$470.94

Research grade

NeutralSydney Sixers at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sydney Sixers

1 of 7 top traders (14%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Brisbane Heat26%

Sydney Sixers74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sydney Sixers1 trader

Total Value$15.6K

Total Shares20,352

Combined PnL+$308.21

Brisbane Heat6 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares9,786

Combined PnL+$162.73

Sydney Sixers — 14%Brisbane Heat — 86%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI midwicket72	Sydney Sixersavg 75¢	$15.3K	$15.6K	+$308.21	54% 249-210 (459)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Brisbane Heatavg 26¢	$999.99	$1.3K	+$308.3	51% 3919-3833 (7752)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Brisbane Heatavg 27.2¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$135.9	47% 2466-2765 (5231)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Brisbane Heatavg 22.7¢	$340.37	$330.08	-$10.29	49% 18955-19375 (38330)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Sydney Sixersavg 72.4¢	$117.47	$121.61	+$4.15	39% 3159-4962 (8121)
└ Sydney Sixers leg	Sydney Sixersavg 72.4¢	$93.47	$96.11	+$2.65
└ Brisbane Heat leg	Brisbane Heatavg 24¢	$24	$25.5	+$1.5
tradecraftCTR<$100	Brisbane Heatavg 23.5¢	$27.31	$26.17	-$1.14	51% 5965-5659 (11624)
NO NotradecopyCTR<$100	Brisbane Heatavg 23¢	$3.55	$5.25	+$1.7	49% 3915-4108 (8023)
probabilityCTR<$100	Brisbane Heatavg 23¢	$1.49	$1.56	+$0.06	41% 1359-1916 (3275)

midwicket72

Sydney Sixers

Invested

$15,260.74

Value

$15.6K

PnL

+$308.21

Record

54%

249-210 (459)

GamblingAddict12345CTR

Brisbane Heat

Invested

$999.99

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$308.3

Record

51%

3919-3833 (7752)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Brisbane Heat

Invested

$1,175.35

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$135.9

Record

47%

2466-2765 (5231)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Brisbane Heat

Invested

$340.37

Value

$330.08

PnL

-$10.29

Record

49%

18955-19375 (38330)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Sydney Sixers

Invested

$117.47

Value

$121.61

PnL

+$4.15

Record

39%

3159-4962 (8121)

Both legs:

Sydney Sixers$93.4772.4¢+$2.65

Brisbane Heat$2424¢+$1.5

tradecraftCTR<$100

Brisbane Heat

Invested

$27.31

Value

$26.17

PnL

-$1.14

Record

51%

5965-5659 (11624)

NotradecopyCTR<$100

Brisbane Heat

Invested

$3.55

Value

$5.25

PnL

+$1.7

Record

49%

3915-4108 (8023)

probabilityCTR<$100

Brisbane Heat

Invested

$1.49

Value

$1.56

PnL

+$0.06

Record

41%

1359-1916 (3275)

Research grade

NeutralSydney Sixers at 74%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Sydney Sixers

1 of 7 top traders (14%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sydney Sixers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.