Big Bash League, Women: Adelaide Strikers vs Melbourne Stars
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Adelaide Strikers (60%) · Adelaide Strikers at 81¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Adelaide Strikers
5
Adelaide Strikers 60%
1 arb excluded
$2.5K
-$10.79
54.8¢ → 80.5¢
+47% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralAdelaide Strikers at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI midwicket72ARB<$100 | Melbourne Starsavg 47.6¢ | $2.5K | $1.9K | -$605.62 | 54% 250-212 (462) |
| └ Adelaide Strikers leg | Adelaide Strikersavg 68.2¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$210.9 | |
| └ Melbourne Stars leg | Melbourne Starsavg 47.6¢ | $1.4K | $565.79 | -$816.52 | |
BL blket | Adelaide Strikersavg 59¢ | $374.11 | $371.12 | -$2.99 | 68% 598-282 (880) |
 tradecraft | Adelaide Strikersavg 41¢ | $198.63 | $116.2 | +$34.76 | 51% 5997-5693 (11690) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Melbourne Starsavg 34¢ | $117.64 | $75.39 | -$42.25 | 49% 7853-8150 (16003) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Adelaide Strikersavg 60¢ | $10.94 | $10.67 | -$0.27 | 49% 19132-19523 (38655) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Melbourne Starsavg 40¢ | $3.12 | $3.08 | -$0.04 | 53% 4456-4025 (8481) |
Invested
$2,546.28
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$605.62
Record
54%
250-212 (462)
Both legs:
Invested
$374.11
Value
$371.12
PnL
-$2.99
Record
68%
598-282 (880)
tradecraftInvested
$198.63
Value
$116.2
PnL
+$34.76
Record
51%
5997-5693 (11690)
Invested
$117.64
Value
$75.39
PnL
-$42.25
Record
49%
7853-8150 (16003)
Invested
$10.94
Value
$10.67
PnL
-$0.27
Record
49%
19132-19523 (38655)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.12
Value
$3.08
PnL
-$0.04
Record
53%
4456-4025 (8481)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.