Nepal Premier League: Sudurpaschim Royals vs Chitwan Rhinos

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Sudurpaschim Royals (50%) · Sudurpaschim Royals at 80¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 9

Sudurpaschim Royals80¢Chitwan Rhinos20¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sudurpaschim Royals

Consensus Traders

Sudurpaschim Royals 50%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$424.01

Smart Money Entry

64.8¢ → 80¢

+23% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralSudurpaschim Royals at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sudurpaschim Royals

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Sudurpaschim Royals80%

Chitwan Rhinos20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sudurpaschim Royals4 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares6,187

Combined PnL+$460.97

Chitwan Rhinos4 traders

Total Value$175.48

Total Shares613

Combined PnL-$36.97

Sudurpaschim Royals — 50%Chitwan Rhinos — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Sudurpaschim Royals. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSudurpaschim Royals 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrChitwan Rhinos 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedChitwan Rhinos 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Chitwan Rhinos 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Sudurpaschim Royalsavg 65.2¢	$2.7K	$2.9K	+$259.63	50% 19815-20158 (39973)
tradecraft	Sudurpaschim Royalsavg 64.4¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$196.23	51% 6153-5872 (12025)
MI mishipolis	Sudurpaschim Royalsavg 57.3¢	$100.37	$102.37	+$4.83	50% 4634-4563 (9197)
probabilityCTR	Chitwan Rhinosavg 52.9¢	$81.21	$65.84	-$15.36	41% 1399-2008 (3407)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Chitwan Rhinosavg 35¢	$61.2	$59.5	-$1.71	43% 7731-10455 (18186)
poshposhCTR<$100	Chitwan Rhinosavg 28.4¢	$66.62	$46.91	-$19.71	58% 11432-8282 (19714)
SM smithagent<$100	Sudurpaschim Royalsavg 78¢	$6.24	$6.52	+$0.28	48% 3291-3581 (6872)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Chitwan Rhinosavg 36¢	$3.43	$3.24	-$0.19	45% 12902-15667 (28569)

omnibus-076daa

Sudurpaschim Royals

Invested

$2,689.08

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$259.63

Record

50%

19815-20158 (39973)

tradecraft

Sudurpaschim Royals

Invested

$1,249.55

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$196.23

Record

51%

6153-5872 (12025)

mishipolis

Sudurpaschim Royals

Invested

$100.37

Value

$102.37

PnL

+$4.83

Record

50%

4634-4563 (9197)

probabilityCTR

Chitwan Rhinos

Invested

$81.21

Value

$65.84

PnL

-$15.36

Record

41%

1399-2008 (3407)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Chitwan Rhinos

Invested

$61.2

Value

$59.5

PnL

-$1.71

Record

43%

7731-10455 (18186)

poshposhCTR<$100

Chitwan Rhinos

Invested

$66.62

Value

$46.91

PnL

-$19.71

Record

58%

11432-8282 (19714)

smithagent<$100

Sudurpaschim Royals

Invested

$6.24

Value

$6.52

PnL

+$0.28

Record

48%

3291-3581 (6872)

suntoriCTR<$100

Chitwan Rhinos

Invested

$3.43

Value

$3.24

PnL

-$0.19

Record

45%

12902-15667 (28569)

Research grade

NeutralSudurpaschim Royals at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Sudurpaschim Royals

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Sudurpaschim Royals. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSudurpaschim Royals 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrChitwan Rhinos 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedChitwan Rhinos 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Chitwan Rhinos 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sudurpaschim Royals wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.