Nepal Premier League: Sudurpaschim Royals vs Biratnagar Kings
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Biratnagar Kings (80%) · Biratnagar Kings at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Biratnagar Kings
5
Biratnagar Kings 80%
$2.3K
$114.76
88.2¢ → 99.5¢
+13% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralBiratnagar Kings at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Biratnagar Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI midwicket72 | Biratnagar Kingsavg 90.4¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$146.46 | 54% 250-214 (464) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Biratnagar Kingsavg 72¢ | $39.6 | $50.05 | +$10.45 | 59% 30487-21198 (51685) |
 poshposh<$100 | Biratnagar Kingsavg 35¢ | $22.76 | $41.6 | +$18.84 | 59% 10226-7214 (17440) |
 probability<$100 | Biratnagar Kingsavg 38.4¢ | $12.08 | $28.6 | +$2.85 | 42% 1365-1922 (3287) |
MI mishipolisCTR<$100 | Sudurpaschim Royalsavg 50.5¢ | $85.99 | $13.63 | -$63.84 | 50% 4546-4494 (9040) |
Invested
$1,975.45
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$146.46
Record
54%
250-214 (464)
Invested
$39.6
Value
$50.05
PnL
+$10.45
Record
59%
30487-21198 (51685)
poshposh<$100Invested
$22.76
Value
$41.6
PnL
+$18.84
Record
59%
10226-7214 (17440)
probability<$100Invested
$12.08
Value
$28.6
PnL
+$2.85
Record
42%
1365-1922 (3287)
Invested
$85.99
Value
$13.63
PnL
-$63.84
Record
50%
4546-4494 (9040)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.