Nepal Premier League: Pokhara Avengers vs Kathmandu Gurkhas

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Pokhara Avengers (11%) · Pokhara Avengers at 88¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 22

Pokhara Avengers88¢Kathmandu Gurkhas12¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Pokhara Avengers

Consensus Traders

Pokhara Avengers 11%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$316.64

Research grade

NeutralPokhara Avengers at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pokhara Avengers

1 of 9 top traders (11%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pokhara Avengers88%

Kathmandu Gurkhas13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pokhara Avengers1 trader

Total Value$552.35

Total Shares584

Combined PnL-$174.6

Kathmandu Gurkhas8 traders

Total Value$218.56

Total Shares570

Combined PnL-$142.04

Pokhara Avengers — 11%Kathmandu Gurkhas — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-67 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Pokhara Avengers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKathmandu Gurkhas 100% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Kathmandu Gurkhas 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tradecraft	Pokhara Avengersavg 87.3¢	$728.67	$552.35	-$174.6	34% 460-894 (1354)
MI midwicket72ARB<$100	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 22¢	$525.86	$330.52	-$195.34	33% 12-24 (36)
└ Kathmandu Gurkhas leg	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 22¢	$440	$240	-$200
└ Pokhara Avengers leg	Pokhara Avengersavg 83.5¢	$85.86	$90.52	+$4.66
NO NotJumpCTR	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 43¢	$189.01	$172.06	-$1.99	50% 1112-1113 (2225)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 43.8¢	$295.63	$107.93	-$187.7	39% 1554-2430 (3984)
└ Kathmandu Gurkhas leg	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 43.8¢	$265.63	$72.73	-$192.9
└ Pokhara Avengers leg	Pokhara Avengersavg 75¢	$30	$35.2	+$5.2
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 59.2¢	$73.21	$13.16	-$57.41	52% 200-187 (387)
probabilityCTR<$100	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 56.8¢	$60.59	$12.8	-$47.79	49% 33-35 (68)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 19.2¢	$6.98	$6.74	+$2.88	46% 3204-3750 (6954)
poshposhCTR<$100	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 57¢	$24.95	$5.25	-$19.7	49% 1306-1379 (2685)
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 63¢	$23.34	$4.45	-$18.9	41% 160-233 (393)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 63¢	$15.75	$3	-$12.75	46% 873-1017 (1890)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 11¢	$16.26	$1.1	+$13.62	53% 7468-6589 (14057)

tradecraft

Pokhara Avengers

Invested

$728.67

Value

$552.35

PnL

-$174.6

Record

34%

460-894 (1354)

midwicket72ARB<$100

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Invested

$525.86

Value

$330.52

PnL

-$195.34

Record

33%

12-24 (36)

Both legs:

Kathmandu Gurkhas$44022¢-$200

Pokhara Avengers$85.8683.5¢+$4.66

NotJumpCTR

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Invested

$189.01

Value

$172.06

PnL

-$1.99

Record

50%

1112-1113 (2225)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Invested

$295.63

Value

$107.93

PnL

-$187.7

Record

39%

1554-2430 (3984)

Both legs:

Kathmandu Gurkhas$265.6343.8¢-$192.9

Pokhara Avengers$3075¢+$5.2

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Invested

$73.21

Value

$13.16

PnL

-$57.41

Record

52%

200-187 (387)

probabilityCTR<$100

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Invested

$60.59

Value

$12.8

PnL

-$47.79

Record

49%

33-35 (68)

suntoriCTR<$100

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Invested

$6.98

Value

$6.74

PnL

+$2.88

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

poshposhCTR<$100

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Invested

$24.95

Value

$5.25

PnL

-$19.7

Record

49%

1306-1379 (2685)

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Invested

$23.34

Value

$4.45

PnL

-$18.9

Record

41%

160-233 (393)

smithagentCTR<$100

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Invested

$15.75

Value

PnL

-$12.75

Record

46%

873-1017 (1890)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Invested

$16.26

Value

$1.1

PnL

+$13.62

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

Research grade

NeutralPokhara Avengers at 88%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Pokhara Avengers

1 of 9 top traders (11%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-67 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Pokhara Avengers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKathmandu Gurkhas 100% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Kathmandu Gurkhas 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pokhara Avengers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.