Nepal Premier League: Lumbini Lions vs Pokhara Avengers

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Lumbini Lions (69%) · Lumbini Lions at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 10

Lumbini Lions>99¢Pokhara Avengers<1¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lumbini Lions

Consensus Traders

Lumbini Lions 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$114.85

Smart Money Entry

68.6¢ → 100¢

+46% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralLumbini Lions at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lumbini Lions

9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lumbini Lions100%

Pokhara Avengers0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lumbini Lions9 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares4,128

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Pokhara Avengers4 traders

Total Value$207.47

Total Shares7,897

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Lumbini Lions — 69%Pokhara Avengers — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Lumbini Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Pokhara Avengers) and the top 1000 (12 on Lumbini Lions) disagree here.

whaleLumbini Lions 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrLumbini Lions 73% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedPokhara Avengers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Lumbini Lions 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tradecraft	Lumbini Lionsavg 65.9¢	$1.8K	$2.7K	+$916.33	51% 6211-5950 (12161)
OM omnibus-076daa	Lumbini Lionsavg 65.1¢	$558.86	$840.41	+$281.55	50% 20136-20479 (40615)
poshposhARB<$100	Pokhara Avengersavg 29.3¢	$312.78	$256.64	-$56.13	57% 11829-8912 (20741)
└ Pokhara Avengers leg	Pokhara Avengersavg 29.3¢	$266.16	$190.75	-$75.4
└ Lumbini Lions leg	Lumbini Lionsavg 62.3¢	$46.62	$65.89	+$19.27
SM smithagent	Lumbini Lionsavg 88.5¢	$215.12	$213.84	-$1.28	48% 5267-5648 (10915)
BE berlinskies	Lumbini Lionsavg 99¢	$100.04	$100.97	+$0.93	58% 6213-4483 (10696)
alpheclabs2CTR	Pokhara Avengersavg 28.7¢	$791.19	$96.34	-$694.84	47% 1095-1238 (2333)
NO NotJump	Lumbini Lionsavg 79¢	$332.14	$76.71	+$13.23	44% 10207-13249 (23456)
MO mouzsynapse<$100	Lumbini Lionsavg 61.8¢	$42.8	$60.9	+$18.11	40% 1105-1676 (2781)
probabilityCTR<$100	Pokhara Avengersavg 35.9¢	$34.33	$52.42	+$7.69	41% 1410-2049 (3459)
DI dips.<$100	Lumbini Lionsavg 88.6¢	$47.59	$47.03	-$0.56	46% 7598-8830 (16428)
MI mishipolisCTR<$100	Pokhara Avengersavg 31¢	$62	$42	-$37	50% 4713-4640 (9353)
SU suntori<$100	Lumbini Lionsavg 91¢	$37.98	$36.72	-$1.26	45% 13592-16514 (30106)
CI cigarettesCTR	Pokhara Avengersavg 8.1¢	$404.85	$16.71	-$388.14	54% 22016-19117 (41133)
PA pauleta23<$100	Lumbini Lionsavg 99¢	$10.01	$10.1	+$0.09	66% 23802-12046 (35848)

tradecraft

Lumbini Lions

Invested

$1,780.68

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$916.33

Record

51%

6211-5950 (12161)

omnibus-076daa

Lumbini Lions

Invested

$558.86

Value

$840.41

PnL

+$281.55

Record

50%

20136-20479 (40615)

poshposhARB<$100

Pokhara Avengers

Invested

$312.78

Value

$256.64

PnL

-$56.13

Record

57%

11829-8912 (20741)

Both legs:

Pokhara Avengers$266.1629.3¢-$75.4

Lumbini Lions$46.6262.3¢+$19.27

smithagent

Lumbini Lions

Invested

$215.12

Value

$213.84

PnL

-$1.28

Record

48%

5267-5648 (10915)

berlinskies

Lumbini Lions

Invested

$100.04

Value

$100.97

PnL

+$0.93

Record

58%

6213-4483 (10696)

alpheclabs2CTR

Pokhara Avengers

Invested

$791.19

Value

$96.34

PnL

-$694.84

Record

47%

1095-1238 (2333)

NotJump

Lumbini Lions

Invested

$332.14

Value

$76.71

PnL

+$13.23

Record

44%

10207-13249 (23456)

mouzsynapse<$100

Lumbini Lions

Invested

$42.8

Value

$60.9

PnL

+$18.11

Record

40%

1105-1676 (2781)

probabilityCTR<$100

Pokhara Avengers

Invested

$34.33

Value

$52.42

PnL

+$7.69

Record

41%

1410-2049 (3459)

dips.<$100

Lumbini Lions

Invested

$47.59

Value

$47.03

PnL

-$0.56

Record

46%

7598-8830 (16428)

mishipolisCTR<$100

Pokhara Avengers

Invested

$62

Value

$42

PnL

-$37

Record

50%

4713-4640 (9353)

suntori<$100

Lumbini Lions

Invested

$37.98

Value

$36.72

PnL

-$1.26

Record

45%

13592-16514 (30106)

cigarettesCTR

Pokhara Avengers

Invested

$404.85

Value

$16.71

PnL

-$388.14

Record

54%

22016-19117 (41133)

pauleta23<$100

Lumbini Lions

Invested

$10.01

Value

$10.1

PnL

+$0.09

Record

66%

23802-12046 (35848)

Research grade

NeutralLumbini Lions at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Lumbini Lions

9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Lumbini Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Pokhara Avengers) and the top 1000 (12 on Lumbini Lions) disagree here.

whaleLumbini Lions 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrLumbini Lions 73% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedPokhara Avengers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Lumbini Lions 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lumbini Lions wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.