Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Biratnagar Kings, while the market favors Karnali Yaks (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Nepal Premier League: Karnali Yaks vs Biratnagar Kings

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Biratnagar Kings (100%) · Biratnagar Kings at 0.1¢ · $874 held · ends Nov 5

Karnali Yaks>99¢Biratnagar Kings<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Biratnagar Kings

Consensus Traders

Biratnagar Kings 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$874.35

Combined PnL

$153.69

Smart Money Entry

45.8¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidBiratnagar Kings at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Biratnagar Kings

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Karnali Yaks 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Karnali Yaks100%

Biratnagar Kings0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Biratnagar Kings5 traders

Total Value$480.35

Total Shares684

Combined PnL+$153.69

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI midwicket72ARB<$100	Biratnagar Kingsavg 55.3¢	$851.45	$394	-$457.45	55% 247-206 (453)
└ Karnali Yaks leg	Karnali Yaksavg 13¢	$43.15	$313.67	+$270.52
└ Biratnagar Kings leg	Biratnagar Kingsavg 55.3¢	$808.3	$80.33	-$727.97
poshposhCTR	Biratnagar Kingsavg 46.5¢	$152.89	$296.92	+$144.03	59% 9676-6661 (16337)
probabilityCTR	Biratnagar Kingsavg 54.1¢	$114.84	$90.27	-$24.57	41% 1353-1910 (3263)
MI mishipolisCTR<$100	Biratnagar Kingsavg 21¢	$54.68	$61.76	+$53.08	50% 4485-4420 (8905)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Biratnagar Kingsavg 69.4¢	$44.38	$27.16	-$17.22	59% 30217-20924 (51141)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Biratnagar Kingsavg 22.2¢	$5.88	$4.24	-$1.64	52% 3688-3350 (7038)

midwicket72ARB<$100

Biratnagar Kings

Invested

$851.45

Value

$394

PnL

-$457.45

Record

55%

247-206 (453)

Both legs:

Karnali Yaks$43.1513¢+$270.52

Biratnagar Kings$808.355.3¢-$727.97

poshposhCTR

Biratnagar Kings

Invested

$152.89

Value

$296.92

PnL

+$144.03

Record

59%

9676-6661 (16337)

probabilityCTR

Biratnagar Kings

Invested

$114.84

Value

$90.27

PnL

-$24.57

Record

41%

1353-1910 (3263)

mishipolisCTR<$100

Biratnagar Kings

Invested

$54.68

Value

$61.76

PnL

+$53.08

Record

50%

4485-4420 (8905)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Biratnagar Kings

Invested

$44.38

Value

$27.16

PnL

-$17.22

Record

59%

30217-20924 (51141)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Biratnagar Kings

Invested

$5.88

Value

$4.24

PnL

-$1.64

Record

52%

3688-3350 (7038)

Research grade

AvoidBiratnagar Kings at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Biratnagar Kings

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Karnali Yaks 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Biratnagar Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8562.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

8662.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.