Nepal Premier League: Janakpur Bolts vs Pokhara Avengers
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Janakpur Bolts (50%) · Janakpur Bolts at 84¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8
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Neutral
Janakpur Bolts
4
Janakpur Bolts 50%
2 arb excluded
$2.4K
$59.71
54.6¢ → 83.5¢
+53% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralJanakpur Bolts at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI midwicket72ARB<$100 | Pokhara Avengersavg 11.9¢ | $2.5K | $1.8K | -$653.57 | 54% 252-215 (467) |
| └ Janakpur Bolts leg | Janakpur Boltsavg 75.6¢ | $847.08 | $1.1K | +$212.41 | |
| └ Pokhara Avengers leg | Pokhara Avengersavg 11.9¢ | $1.6K | $745.11 | -$865.98 | |
 poshposh | Janakpur Boltsavg 53.5¢ | $252 | $311.28 | +$59.27 | 58% 10657-7637 (18294) |
MI mishipolisARB<$100 | Pokhara Avengersavg 22.7¢ | $164.85 | $224.99 | +$60.14 | 50% 4583-4519 (9102) |
| └ Janakpur Bolts leg | Janakpur Boltsavg 34¢ | $68 | $178 | +$110 | |
| └ Pokhara Avengers leg | Pokhara Avengersavg 22.7¢ | $96.85 | $46.99 | -$49.86 | |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Pokhara Avengersavg 26.1¢ | $15.38 | $14.41 | -$0.97 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Janakpur Boltsavg 84¢ | $10 | $10.65 | +$0.65 | 67% 23462-11817 (35279) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Pokhara Avengersavg 13¢ | $0.66 | $1.97 | +$0.76 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
Invested
$2,458.17
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$653.57
Record
54%
252-215 (467)
Both legs:
poshposhInvested
$252
Value
$311.28
PnL
+$59.27
Record
58%
10657-7637 (18294)
Invested
$164.85
Value
$224.99
PnL
+$60.14
Record
50%
4583-4519 (9102)
Both legs:
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$15.38
Value
$14.41
PnL
-$0.97
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
Invested
$10
Value
$10.65
PnL
+$0.65
Record
67%
23462-11817 (35279)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$0.66
Value
$1.97
PnL
+$0.76
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.