Nepal Premier League: Janakpur Bolts vs Kathmandu Gurkhas

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Janakpur Bolts (20%) · Janakpur Bolts at 74¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 5

Janakpur Bolts74¢Kathmandu Gurkhas26¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Janakpur Bolts

Consensus Traders

Janakpur Bolts 20%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$106.64

Research grade

NeutralJanakpur Bolts at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Janakpur Bolts

1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Janakpur Bolts74%

Kathmandu Gurkhas26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Janakpur Bolts1 trader

Total Value$252.11

Total Shares504

Combined PnL-$110.93

Kathmandu Gurkhas4 traders

Total Value$70.37

Total Shares223

Combined PnL+$4.29

Janakpur Bolts — 20%Kathmandu Gurkhas — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI midwicket72ARB<$100	Janakpur Boltsavg 69¢	$703.91	$900.46	+$196.55	55% 247-206 (453)
└ Janakpur Bolts leg	Janakpur Boltsavg 69¢	$413	$472.83	+$101.73
└ Kathmandu Gurkhas leg	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 16.3¢	$332.81	$427.63	+$94.82
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Janakpur Boltsavg 72¢	$363.03	$252.11	-$110.93	59% 30196-20917 (51113)
probabilityCTR<$100	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 47.3¢	$29.17	$30.8	+$1.64	41% 1348-1906 (3254)
poshposhCTR<$100	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 42¢	$21.84	$25.69	+$3.85	59% 9650-6640 (16290)
MI mishipolisCTR<$100	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 13¢	$13	$12.5	-$0.5	50% 4483-4417 (8900)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 17.3¢	$2.08	$1.38	-$0.7	52% 3660-3323 (6983)

midwicket72ARB<$100

Janakpur Bolts

Invested

$703.91

Value

$900.46

PnL

+$196.55

Record

55%

247-206 (453)

Both legs:

Janakpur Bolts$41369¢+$101.73

Kathmandu Gurkhas$332.8116.3¢+$94.82

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Janakpur Bolts

Invested

$363.03

Value

$252.11

PnL

-$110.93

Record

59%

30196-20917 (51113)

probabilityCTR<$100

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Invested

$29.17

Value

$30.8

PnL

+$1.64

Record

41%

1348-1906 (3254)

poshposhCTR<$100

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Invested

$21.84

Value

$25.69

PnL

+$3.85

Record

59%

9650-6640 (16290)

mishipolisCTR<$100

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Invested

$13

Value

$12.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

50%

4483-4417 (8900)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Invested

$2.08

Value

$1.38

PnL

-$0.7

Record

52%

3660-3323 (6983)

Research grade

NeutralJanakpur Bolts at 74%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Janakpur Bolts

1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Janakpur Bolts wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.