Hong Kong Sixes: United Arab Emirates vs India
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold United Arab Emirates (67%) · United Arab Emirates at 100¢ · $487 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
United Arab Emirates
6
United Arab Emirates 67%
$487.28
$40.62
73.3¢ → 100¢
+36% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnited Arab Emirates at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 tradecraft | United Arab Emiratesavg 69¢ | $322.3 | $350.2 | +$27.9 | 51% 5995-5689 (11684) |
BE berlinskies<$100 | United Arab Emiratesavg 90¢ | $99.99 | $83.3 | -$16.69 | 58% 5841-4289 (10130) |
MI mishipolisCTR<$100 | Indiaavg 15.4¢ | $14.87 | $26.67 | +$11.8 | 50% 4518-4455 (8973) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Indiaavg 52.8¢ | $65.66 | $16.71 | +$18.26 | 42% 1360-1917 (3277) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | United Arab Emiratesavg 90¢ | $10 | $8.33 | -$1.67 | 67% 23315-11716 (35031) |
 HRTrading<$100 | United Arab Emiratesavg 42¢ | $1.05 | $2.08 | +$1.03 | 52% 4302-3911 (8213) |
tradecraftInvested
$322.3
Value
$350.2
PnL
+$27.9
Record
51%
5995-5689 (11684)
Invested
$99.99
Value
$83.3
PnL
-$16.69
Record
58%
5841-4289 (10130)
Invested
$14.87
Value
$26.67
PnL
+$11.8
Record
50%
4518-4455 (8973)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$65.66
Value
$16.71
PnL
+$18.26
Record
42%
1360-1917 (3277)
Invested
$10
Value
$8.33
PnL
-$1.67
Record
67%
23315-11716 (35031)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$2.08
PnL
+$1.03
Record
52%
4302-3911 (8213)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.