Abu Dhabi T10 League: Arabian Aces vs UAE Bulls

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold UAE Bulls (50%) · UAE Bulls at 91¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 20

Arabian Aces9¢UAE Bulls91¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

UAE Bulls

Consensus Traders

UAE Bulls 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.1K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

80.1¢ → 90.8¢

+13% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUAE Bulls at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UAE Bulls

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Arabian Aces9%

UAE Bulls91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UAE Bulls4 traders

Total Value$15.0K

Total Shares15,317

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Arabian Aces4 traders

Total Value$53.27

Total Shares477

Combined PnL-$155.66

UAE Bulls — 50%Arabian Aces — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on UAE Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrArabian Aces 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000UAE Bulls 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI midwicket72	UAE Bullsavg 80.3¢	$12.8K	$14.6K	+$1.8K	29% 7-17 (24)
tradecraft	UAE Bullsavg 84¢	$199.07	$216.22	+$17.15	26% 250-703 (953)
PA pauleta23<$100	UAE Bullsavg 68.4¢	$80	$95.04	+$15.04	38% 370-597 (967)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	UAE Bullsavg 83.7¢	$520.51	$76.44	+$27.76	53% 631-566 (1197)
└ Arabian Aces leg	Arabian Acesavg 15.3¢	$33.42	$40.9	-$113.02
└ UAE Bulls leg	UAE Bullsavg 83.7¢	$36.6	$35.54	+$140.79
NO Notradecopy<$100	UAE Bullsavg 50¢	$72.86	$73.04	+$35.04	17% 37-184 (221)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Arabian Acesavg 32.6¢	$57.13	$32.8	-$24.33	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Arabian Acesavg 50¢	$130.93	$10.52	-$120.41	41% 91-132 (223)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Arabian Acesavg 43¢	$11.66	$9.13	-$2.53	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
probabilityCTR<$100	Arabian Acesavg 45.2¢	$10.97	$0.83	-$8.38	41% 18-26 (44)

midwicket72

UAE Bulls

Invested

$12,844.85

Value

$14.6K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

29%

7-17 (24)

tradecraft

UAE Bulls

Invested

$199.07

Value

$216.22

PnL

+$17.15

Record

26%

250-703 (953)

pauleta23<$100

UAE Bulls

Invested

$80

Value

$95.04

PnL

+$15.04

Record

38%

370-597 (967)

NotJumpARB<$100

UAE Bulls

Invested

$520.51

Value

$76.44

PnL

+$27.76

Record

53%

631-566 (1197)

Both legs:

Arabian Aces$33.4215.3¢-$113.02

UAE Bulls$36.683.7¢+$140.79

Notradecopy<$100

UAE Bulls

Invested

$72.86

Value

$73.04

PnL

+$35.04

Record

17%

37-184 (221)

suntoriCTR<$100

Arabian Aces

Invested

$57.13

Value

$32.8

PnL

-$24.33

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

mouzsynapseCTR

Arabian Aces

Invested

$130.93

Value

$10.52

PnL

-$120.41

Record

41%

91-132 (223)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Arabian Aces

Invested

$11.66

Value

$9.13

PnL

-$2.53

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

probabilityCTR<$100

Arabian Aces

Invested

$10.97

Value

$0.83

PnL

-$8.38

Record

41%

18-26 (44)

Research grade

NeutralUAE Bulls at 91%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

UAE Bulls

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on UAE Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrArabian Aces 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000UAE Bulls 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UAE Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.2%

90.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.