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3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 78¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.2K
$61.82
68.8¢ → 78¢
+13% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Late
169h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 paddaa | Noavg 67.4¢ | $447.88 | $513 | +$65.12 | 57% 825-634 (1459) |
 StarMaster | Noavg 70¢ | $350.01 | $380 | +$37.49 | 53% 1842-1626 (3468) |
 viniiCTR | Yesavg 28.4¢ | $212.07 | $164.49 | -$47.59 | 74% 2744-983 (3727) |
BE Beyonddream | Noavg 71¢ | $141.99 | $151.99 | +$13 | 61% 201-129 (330) |
 cambridgeisaacCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $34.72 | $28.52 | -$6.2 | 57% 1106-825 (1931) |
paddaaInvested
$447.88
Value
$513
PnL
+$65.12
Record
57%
825-634 (1459)
StarMasterInvested
$350.01
Value
$380
PnL
+$37.49
Record
53%
1842-1626 (3468)
viniiCTRInvested
$212.07
Value
$164.49
PnL
-$47.59
Record
74%
2744-983 (3727)
Invested
$141.99
Value
$151.99
PnL
+$13
Record
61%
201-129 (330)
cambridgeisaacCTR<$100Invested
$34.72
Value
$28.52
PnL
-$6.2
Record
57%
1106-825 (1931)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.