Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Deportes Quindio win on 2026-10-28?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 49¢ · $503 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$503.01
$0.52
48.2¢ → 49¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR | Noavg 48¢ | $370.75 | $370.75 | +$0 | 55% 1688-1393 (3081) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Noavg 49¢ | $105.4 | $105.4 | -$0 | 50% 32798-32351 (65149) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $24.87 | $25.39 | +$0.52 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $1.47 | $1.47 | +$0 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
Invested
$370.75
Value
$370.75
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
1688-1393 (3081)
Invested
$105.4
Value
$105.4
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
32798-32351 (65149)
Invested
$24.87
Value
$25.39
PnL
+$0.52
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.47
Value
$1.47
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.