Envigado FC vs. Independiente Valle Del Cauca: O/U 1.5
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 63¢ · $623 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Over
2
Over 50%
1 arb excluded
$623.39
$93.95
Research grade
NeutralOver at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SA Saber-greed | Overavg 66.7¢ | $455.24 | $549.03 | +$93.79 | 59% 2545-1765 (4310) |
 VeryLucky888ARB<$100 | Overavg 67¢ | $101.87 | $71.68 | +$1.85 | 58% 41266-29916 (71182) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 32.5¢ | $32.51 | $37.01 | +$4.05 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 67¢ | $36.87 | $34.67 | -$2.2 | |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 34.8¢ | $2.52 | $2.68 | +$0.16 | 52% 3741-3403 (7144) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.