Will Llaneros FC win on 2026-10-31?
7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 59¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 70%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
$34.37
43.5¢ → 59¢
+36% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345ARB<$100 | Yesavg 59.7¢ | $610.52 | $620.56 | +$10.04 | 57% 1768-1328 (3096) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 59.7¢ | $366.5 | $438.72 | +$72.22 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 38.2¢ | $244.02 | $181.85 | -$62.17 | |
TO topdogbigboi | Noavg 46.1¢ | $123.27 | $156.98 | +$33.71 | 48% 8249-8767 (17016) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $72.75 | $72.75 | -$0 | 54% 56824-49050 (105874) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 44.5¢ | $44.26 | $58.68 | +$14.42 | 59% 10341-7332 (17673) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $27.49 | $35.99 | +$8.5 | 51% 6037-5750 (11787) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 60.8¢ | $50.95 | $28.51 | -$20.35 | 53% 5014-4502 (9516) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Noavg 42.8¢ | $20 | $18.92 | -$1.08 | 67% 23397-11771 (35168) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 68.3¢ | $10.25 | $10.73 | +$0.47 | 54% 6346-5362 (11708) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $10.26 | $7.79 | -$2.47 | 50% 33606-33156 (66762) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $3.41 | $3.41 | -$0 | 50% 25353-25122 (50475) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $2.1 | $3.28 | +$1.18 | 74% 1638-585 (2223) |
oieshfn345ARB<$100Invested
$610.52
Value
$620.56
PnL
+$10.04
Record
57%
1768-1328 (3096)
Both legs:
Invested
$123.27
Value
$156.98
PnL
+$33.71
Record
48%
8249-8767 (17016)
RN1<$100Invested
$72.75
Value
$72.75
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
56824-49050 (105874)
poshposh<$100Invested
$44.26
Value
$58.68
PnL
+$14.42
Record
59%
10341-7332 (17673)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$27.49
Value
$35.99
PnL
+$8.5
Record
51%
6037-5750 (11787)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$50.95
Value
$28.51
PnL
-$20.35
Record
53%
5014-4502 (9516)
Invested
$20
Value
$18.92
PnL
-$1.08
Record
67%
23397-11771 (35168)
Invested
$10.25
Value
$10.73
PnL
+$0.47
Record
54%
6346-5362 (11708)
Invested
$10.26
Value
$7.79
PnL
-$2.47
Record
50%
33606-33156 (66762)
Invested
$3.41
Value
$3.41
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
25353-25122 (50475)
Invested
$2.1
Value
$3.28
PnL
+$1.18
Record
74%
1638-585 (2223)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.