Will Llaneros FC vs. CDP Junior FC end in a draw?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 62¢ · $218 held · ended Oct 31

Yes38¢No62¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$217.93

Combined PnL

$5.44

Smart Money Entry

75¢ → 62¢

-17% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$211.92

Total Shares275

Combined PnL+$5.43

Yes2 traders

Total Value$6.01

Total Shares18

Combined PnL+$0.01

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 76¢	$174.17	$176.46	+$2.29	49% 12788-13237 (26025)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 75.5¢	$22.65	$23.1	+$0.45	54% 6346-5362 (11708)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 60.6¢	$9.68	$12.37	+$2.69	48% 8249-8767 (17016)
oieshfn345CTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$3.84	$3.89	+$0.05	57% 1768-1328 (3096)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$2.16	$2.12	-$0.04	53% 16036-14210 (30246)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$174.17

Value

$176.46

PnL

+$2.29

Record

49%

12788-13237 (26025)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$22.65

Value

$23.1

PnL

+$0.45

Record

54%

6346-5362 (11708)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$9.68

Value

$12.37

PnL

+$2.69

Record

48%

8249-8767 (17016)

oieshfn345CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.84

Value

$3.89

PnL

+$0.05

Record

57%

1768-1328 (3096)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.16

Value

$2.12

PnL

-$0.04

Record

53%

16036-14210 (30246)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.2%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.