Independiente Santa Fe leading at halftime?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 93¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$1.3K
$514.6
37.6¢ → 93¢
+147% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 93%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 37.8¢ | $692.39 | $1.2K | +$524.82 | 51% 12449-11898 (24347) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $13.85 | $27.73 | +$13.87 | 54% 2345-1973 (4318) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Noavg 11¢ | $24.2 | $15.4 | -$24.09 | 54% 54957-46919 (101876) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.