Will Jaguares de Córdoba FC win on 2026-08-16?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 65¢ · $220 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$219.71
$4.44
66.3¢ → 65¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 65¢ | $126.29 | $127.26 | +$0.97 | 50% 24840-24547 (49387) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31.1¢ | $42.92 | $46.79 | +$3.32 | 53% 15876-14061 (29937) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 72.8¢ | $17.01 | $17.76 | +$0.75 | 52% 3955-3596 (7551) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $3.55 | $13.2 | -$1.2 | 47% 2245-2523 (4768) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $19.8 | $13.1 | +$0.1 | 58% 41458-30076 (71534) |
LU lukibazdonauki754CTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $0.95 | $1.6 | +$0.5 | 60% 876-576 (1452) |
Invested
$126.29
Value
$127.26
PnL
+$0.97
Record
50%
24840-24547 (49387)
Invested
$42.92
Value
$46.79
PnL
+$3.32
Record
53%
15876-14061 (29937)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$17.01
Value
$17.76
PnL
+$0.75
Record
52%
3955-3596 (7551)
Invested
$3.55
Value
$13.2
PnL
-$1.2
Record
47%
2245-2523 (4768)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$19.8
Value
$13.1
PnL
+$0.1
Record
58%
41458-30076 (71534)
Invested
$0.95
Value
$1.6
PnL
+$0.5
Record
60%
876-576 (1452)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.