Will Deportivo Pereira vs. Jaguares de Córdoba FC end in a draw?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 56¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$3.0K
$113.57
72¢ → 55.5¢
-23% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 72¢ | $1.0K | $942.07 | -$81.73 | 50% 24867-24583 (49450) |
 us391 | Noavg 72¢ | $923.21 | $923.21 | +$0 | 51% 1672-1623 (3295) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 31.6¢ | $563.73 | $759.33 | +$195.6 | 59% 45388-31736 (77124) |
 oieshfn345ARB<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $136.47 | $145.92 | +$9.45 | 57% 1677-1258 (2935) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 62¢ | $101.97 | $102.8 | +$0.82 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 30¢ | $34.5 | $43.13 | +$8.63 | |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $90.71 | $90.71 | -$0 | 58% 28432-20995 (49427) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $72.85 | $72.88 | +$0.03 | 53% 15887-14071 (29958) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $10.65 | $10.35 | -$0.3 | 54% 6198-5251 (11449) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $3.7 | $3.68 | -$0.03 | 47% 2277-2560 (4837) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $3.05 | $3.05 | +$0 | 38% 3225-5275 (8500) |
Invested
$1,023.8
Value
$942.07
PnL
-$81.73
Record
50%
24867-24583 (49450)
us391Invested
$923.21
Value
$923.21
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
1672-1623 (3295)
Invested
$563.73
Value
$759.33
PnL
+$195.6
Record
59%
45388-31736 (77124)
oieshfn345ARB<$100Invested
$136.47
Value
$145.92
PnL
+$9.45
Record
57%
1677-1258 (2935)
Both legs:
Invested
$90.71
Value
$90.71
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
28432-20995 (49427)
Invested
$72.85
Value
$72.88
PnL
+$0.03
Record
53%
15887-14071 (29958)
Invested
$10.65
Value
$10.35
PnL
-$0.3
Record
54%
6198-5251 (11449)
Invested
$3.7
Value
$3.68
PnL
-$0.03
Record
47%
2277-2560 (4837)
Invested
$3.05
Value
$3.05
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
3225-5275 (8500)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.