Will Deportivo Pereira win on 2026-08-16?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 70¢ · $535 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$535.29
-$2.99
69.3¢ → 69.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA Cannae | Noavg 69.7¢ | $369.46 | $365.56 | -$3.9 | 53% 15879-14069 (29948) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow | Noavg 69¢ | $138 | $138 | +$0 | 54% 4855-4081 (8936) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 69.5¢ | $13.9 | $13.8 | -$0.1 | 58% 41488-30106 (71594) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 58.4¢ | $8.32 | $9.83 | +$1.51 | 52% 3994-3637 (7631) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $8.45 | $8.1 | -$0.5 | 47% 2257-2545 (4802) |
Invested
$369.46
Value
$365.56
PnL
-$3.9
Record
53%
15879-14069 (29948)
Invested
$138
Value
$138
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
4855-4081 (8936)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$13.9
Value
$13.8
PnL
-$0.1
Record
58%
41488-30106 (71594)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$8.32
Value
$9.83
PnL
+$1.51
Record
52%
3994-3637 (7631)
Invested
$8.45
Value
$8.1
PnL
-$0.5
Record
47%
2257-2545 (4802)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.