Deportivo Pereira vs. América de Cali: O/U 2.5

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 56¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 14

Over56¢Under44¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

-$22.38

Smart Money Entry

55.7¢ → 55.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 12 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares6,574

Combined PnL-$18.14

Under9 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares4,819

Combined PnL-$4.24

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LuccaF7	Overavg 56¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	-$31.2	59% 16-11 (27)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 45¢	$522.78	$505.35	-$17.43	37% 977-1669 (2646)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Underavg 43¢	$401.86	$420.55	+$18.69	39% 121-186 (307)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 43¢	$340.01	$351.87	+$11.86	36% 950-1657 (2607)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 46.5¢	$295.06	$270	-$8.67	53% 1376-1196 (2572)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 52.4¢	$251.89	$264.35	+$12.46	53% 2108-1855 (3963)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 45¢	$236.65	$228.76	-$7.89	37% 968-1674 (2642)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 44.3¢	$207.73	$203.78	-$3.95	37% 985-1642 (2627)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$200	$200	-$0	69% 133-60 (193)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$100	$110	+$10
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$100	$90	-$10
OD OddstormCTR	Underavg 43.7¢	$123.33	$125.49	+$2.16	32% 99-208 (307)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$20.21	$21.15	+$0.94	36% 111-196 (307)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 51.5¢	$7.25	$7.85	+$0.6	41% 700-1011 (1711)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$3.93	$3.97	+$0.04	55% 474-384 (858)

LuccaF7

Over

Invested

$3,408.59

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$31.2

Record

59%

16-11 (27)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$522.78

Value

$505.35

PnL

-$17.43

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

mouzsynapseCTR

Under

Invested

$401.86

Value

$420.55

PnL

+$18.69

Record

39%

121-186 (307)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$340.01

Value

$351.87

PnL

+$11.86

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$295.06

Value

$270

PnL

-$8.67

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$251.89

Value

$264.35

PnL

+$12.46

Record

53%

2108-1855 (3963)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$236.65

Value

$228.76

PnL

-$7.89

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$207.73

Value

$203.78

PnL

-$3.95

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Over

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

-$0

Record

69%

133-60 (193)

Both legs:

Invested

$123.33

Value

$125.49

PnL

+$2.16

Record

32%

99-208 (307)

biying99999CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20.21

Value

$21.15

PnL

+$0.94

Record

36%

111-196 (307)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$7.25

Value

$7.85

PnL

+$0.6

Record

41%

700-1011 (1711)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.93

Value

$3.97

PnL

+$0.04

Record

55%

474-384 (858)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 12 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.