Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-08-17?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 57¢ · $734 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$734.1
-$152.42
71¢ → 57.5¢
-19% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 63¢ | $404.89 | $372.75 | -$32.13 | 49% 12209-12458 (24667) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 82.6¢ | $340.47 | $230.94 | -$109.53 | 59% 44789-31177 (75966) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 85.6¢ | $64.79 | $44.44 | -$20.35 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35.8¢ | $36.75 | $42.8 | +$6.05 | 54% 6081-5155 (11236) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 57.5¢ | $31.81 | $36.25 | +$4.43 | 59% 9478-6467 (15945) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $5.53 | $4.65 | -$0.88 | 52% 4925-4530 (9455) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $2.28 | $2.28 | -$0 | 54% 55844-47942 (103786) |
Invested
$404.89
Value
$372.75
PnL
-$32.13
Record
49%
12209-12458 (24667)
Invested
$340.47
Value
$230.94
PnL
-$109.53
Record
59%
44789-31177 (75966)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$64.79
Value
$44.44
PnL
-$20.35
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
Invested
$36.75
Value
$42.8
PnL
+$6.05
Record
54%
6081-5155 (11236)
poshposh<$100Invested
$31.81
Value
$36.25
PnL
+$4.43
Record
59%
9478-6467 (15945)
Invested
$5.53
Value
$4.65
PnL
-$0.88
Record
52%
4925-4530 (9455)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$2.28
Value
$2.28
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
55844-47942 (103786)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.