Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Cúcuta Deportivo FC win on 2026-08-15?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 3.0¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 27

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

$420.11

Smart Money Entry

33¢ → 3¢

-91% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares9,662

Combined PnL+$578.58

No4 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,782

Combined PnL-$158.47

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DE DelidelaDeleCTR	Yesavg 33¢	$3.2K	$3.7K	+$576.1	46% 31-36 (67)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 67¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$140.51	58% 40486-29261 (69747)
oieshfn345	Noavg 97¢	$829.3	$834.51	+$5.21	58% 1609-1185 (2794)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 66¢	$314.72	$290.88	-$23.84	50% 2447-2441 (4888)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 94.3¢	$51.92	$52.6	+$0.67	54% 2678-2303 (4981)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$21.73	$24.21	+$2.48	50% 32647-32181 (64828)

DelidelaDeleCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,167.9

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$576.1

Record

46%

31-36 (67)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$1,724.86

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$140.51

Record

58%

40486-29261 (69747)

oieshfn345

Invested

$829.3

Value

$834.51

PnL

+$5.21

Record

58%

1609-1185 (2794)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$314.72

Value

$290.88

PnL

-$23.84

Record

50%

2447-2441 (4888)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$51.92

Value

$52.6

PnL

+$0.67

Record

54%

2678-2303 (4981)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.73

Value

$24.21

PnL

+$2.48

Record

50%

32647-32181 (64828)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.2%

3.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2285.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

2385.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.