Boyacá Chicó FC vs. CDPJuniorFC: O/U 1.5

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 28

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$31.93

Smart Money Entry

96.1¢ → 100¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,484

Combined PnL+$26.69

Under2 traders

Total Value$33.51

Total Shares57

Combined PnL+$5.24

Over — 71%Under — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZaiZoiBele	Overavg 99¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$9.59	80% 4960-1226 (6186)
JhonAlexanderHinestroza	Overavg 96.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$19.36	57% 1102-836 (1938)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Underavg 41¢	$188.54	$200.61	+$12.07	49% 18514-18927 (37441)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.8¢	$81.12	$101.05	+$19.93
└ Under leg	Underavg 41¢	$107.42	$99.56	-$7.86
poshposh	Overavg 70.2¢	$124.33	$173.67	+$49.34	60% 9216-6172 (15388)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Overavg 82.9¢	$96.03	$65.53	-$30.5	47% 4431-4900 (9331)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$27.19	$32.36	+$5.17	59% 29970-20691 (50661)
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 98.7¢	$52.5	$31.4	-$21.1	67% 23068-11460 (34528)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$1.08	$1.16	+$0.07	53% 2815-2479 (5294)

ZaiZoiBele

Over

Invested

$1,899.23

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$9.59

Record

80%

4960-1226 (6186)

JhonAlexanderHinestroza

Over

Invested

$1,202.84

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$19.36

Record

57%

1102-836 (1938)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Under

Invested

$188.54

Value

$200.61

PnL

+$12.07

Record

49%

18514-18927 (37441)

Both legs:

Over$81.1249.8¢+$19.93

Under$107.4241¢-$7.86

poshposh

Over

Invested

$124.33

Value

$173.67

PnL

+$49.34

Record

60%

9216-6172 (15388)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Over

Invested

$96.03

Value

$65.53

PnL

-$30.5

Record

47%

4431-4900 (9331)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.19

Value

$32.36

PnL

+$5.17

Record

59%

29970-20691 (50661)

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$52.5

Value

$31.4

PnL

-$21.1

Record

67%

23068-11460 (34528)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.16

PnL

+$0.07

Record

53%

2815-2479 (5294)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.