Boyacá Chicó FC vs. CDPJuniorFC: 1st Half O/U 0.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 83%
$6.6K
$819.73
67¢ → 100¢
+49% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846 | Underavg 65.4¢ | $3.5K | $4.1K | +$544.29 | 59% 29970-20691 (50661) |
SM Smallcoins | Underavg 66.2¢ | $1.5K | $2.0K | +$719.23 | 53% 1157-1020 (2177) |
PA pauleta23 | Underavg 78¢ | $188.42 | $241.4 | +$52.98 | 67% 23068-11460 (34528) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Underavg 88.9¢ | $197.7 | $212.48 | +$14.78 | 49% 18514-18927 (37441) |
PE Peupo012CTR<$100 | Overavg 1¢ | $23.22 | $11.56 | -$11.56 | 34% 431-836 (1267) |
PE PeAPAnieniLiala | Underavg 70¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 28% 261-674 (935) |
Invested
$3,535.7
Value
$4.1K
PnL
+$544.29
Record
59%
29970-20691 (50661)
Invested
$1,474.93
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$719.23
Record
53%
1157-1020 (2177)
Invested
$188.42
Value
$241.4
PnL
+$52.98
Record
67%
23068-11460 (34528)
Invested
$197.7
Value
$212.48
PnL
+$14.78
Record
49%
18514-18927 (37441)
Invested
$23.22
Value
$11.56
PnL
-$11.56
Record
34%
431-836 (1267)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
28%
261-674 (935)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.