Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (64%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Boyacá Chicó FC vs. CDPJuniorFC end in a draw?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 37¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
1 arb excluded
$2.2K
-$58.44
29¢ → 36.5¢
+26% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 37%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GA GamblingOdysseyCTR | Yesavg 29¢ | $1.9K | $1.8K | -$65 | 51% 839-794 (1633) |
 HRTrading | Noavg 71¢ | $174.4 | $176.8 | +$2.4 | 53% 2815-2479 (5294) |
 oieshfn345ARB<$100 | Noavg 70.1¢ | $176.79 | $171.83 | -$4.97 | 58% 1617-1195 (2812) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 70.1¢ | $96.26 | $91.29 | -$4.98 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 33.5¢ | $80.53 | $80.54 | +$0.01 | |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.9¢ | $24.56 | $23.02 | -$1.54 | 49% 18514-18927 (37441) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 3¢ | $0.25 | $5.95 | +$5.7 | 52% 4911-4508 (9419) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $4.48 | $4.48 | +$0 | 59% 44449-30883 (75332) |
Invested
$1,884.95
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$65
Record
51%
839-794 (1633)
HRTradingInvested
$174.4
Value
$176.8
PnL
+$2.4
Record
53%
2815-2479 (5294)
oieshfn345ARB<$100Invested
$176.79
Value
$171.83
PnL
-$4.97
Record
58%
1617-1195 (2812)
Both legs:
Invested
$24.56
Value
$23.02
PnL
-$1.54
Record
49%
18514-18927 (37441)
Invested
$0.25
Value
$5.95
PnL
+$5.7
Record
52%
4911-4508 (9419)
Invested
$4.48
Value
$4.48
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
44449-30883 (75332)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.