Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-08-17?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 67¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 78%
$2.6K
$51.4
61.9¢ → 66.5¢
+7% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 62.7¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$64.11 | 58% 1617-1195 (2812) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Noavg 60.9¢ | $977.2 | $962.02 | -$15.18 | 49% 18514-18927 (37441) |
 0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22CTR | Yesavg 35¢ | $350 | $355 | +$5 | 65% 1208-652 (1860) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $25.52 | $25.95 | +$0.43 | 59% 44449-30883 (75332) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $11.84 | $12.04 | +$0.2 | 58% 40596-29352 (69948) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 | 67% 23068-11460 (34528) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $8.09 | $4.96 | -$3.14 | 52% 4911-4508 (9419) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 60.3¢ | $4.22 | $4.2 | -$0.02 | 53% 2815-2479 (5294) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $3 | $3 | +$0 | 54% 6038-5118 (11156) |
oieshfn345Invested
$1,191.43
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$64.11
Record
58%
1617-1195 (2812)
Invested
$977.2
Value
$962.02
PnL
-$15.18
Record
49%
18514-18927 (37441)
0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22CTRInvested
$350
Value
$355
PnL
+$5
Record
65%
1208-652 (1860)
Invested
$25.52
Value
$25.95
PnL
+$0.43
Record
59%
44449-30883 (75332)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$11.84
Value
$12.04
PnL
+$0.2
Record
58%
40596-29352 (69948)
Invested
$10
Value
$10
PnL
+$0
Record
67%
23068-11460 (34528)
Invested
$8.09
Value
$4.96
PnL
-$3.14
Record
52%
4911-4508 (9419)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.22
Value
$4.2
PnL
-$0.02
Record
53%
2815-2479 (5294)
Invested
$3
Value
$3
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
6038-5118 (11156)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.