Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-08-15?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 30

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

-$479.75

Smart Money Entry

95.6¢ → 100¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares4,608

Combined PnL-$454.14

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.62

Total Shares234

Combined PnL-$25.61

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 98.5¢	$4.0K	$3.5K	-$469.37	50% 24796-24493 (49289)
oieshfn345	Noavg 85.9¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$9.17	57% 1668-1252 (2920)
HRTrading	Noavg 94.2¢	$106.69	$112.75	+$6.06	52% 3869-3521 (7390)
JA Jackenxand<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.04	$5.05	+$0	97% 2594-90 (2684)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$0.7	$1.5	+$0.15	47% 2223-2507 (4730)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$19.37	$0.81	-$18.57	—
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.1¢	$7.5	$0.31	-$7.19	54% 6170-5233 (11403)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$3,967.24

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$469.37

Record

50%

24796-24493 (49289)

oieshfn345

Invested

$1,020.98

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$9.17

Record

57%

1668-1252 (2920)

HRTrading

Invested

$106.69

Value

$112.75

PnL

+$6.06

Record

52%

3869-3521 (7390)

Jackenxand<$100

Invested

$5.04

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0

Record

97%

2594-90 (2684)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.7

Value

$1.5

PnL

+$0.15

Record

47%

2223-2507 (4730)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.37

Value

$0.81

PnL

-$18.57

Record

—

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.5

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$7.19

Record

54%

6170-5233 (11403)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.