Will Atlético Nacional vs. Independiente Santa Fe end in a draw?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 30

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

-$1.75

Smart Money Entry

94.4¢ → 100¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares3,997

Combined PnL-$4.21

Yes4 traders

Total Value$21.12

Total Shares190

Combined PnL+$2.46

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 96.8¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	-$61.25	50% 24796-24493 (49289)
oieshfn345	Noavg 79.7¢	$410.57	$461.05	+$52.27	57% 1668-1252 (2920)
LU lukibazdonauki754<$100	Noavg 74.8¢	$44.35	$56.32	+$3.37	60% 872-573 (1445)
AR ARocky33<$100	Noavg 93¢	$18.6	$19	+$0.5	76% 3995-1258 (5253)
GA GamblingOdysseyCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$9.22	$12.29	+$3.07	51% 851-811 (1662)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 77¢	$3.85	$4.75	+$0.9	54% 6170-5233 (11403)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.2¢	$5.41	$4.36	-$1.05	52% 3869-3521 (7390)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$0.28	$2.39	-$0.6	47% 2223-2507 (4730)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$1.04	$2.08	+$1.04	49% 18905-19321 (38226)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$3,323.1

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$61.25

Record

50%

24796-24493 (49289)

oieshfn345

Invested

$410.57

Value

$461.05

PnL

+$52.27

Record

57%

1668-1252 (2920)

lukibazdonauki754<$100

Invested

$44.35

Value

$56.32

PnL

+$3.37

Record

60%

872-573 (1445)

ARocky33<$100

Invested

$18.6

Value

$19

PnL

+$0.5

Record

76%

3995-1258 (5253)

GamblingOdysseyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.22

Value

$12.29

PnL

+$3.07

Record

51%

851-811 (1662)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$3.85

Value

$4.75

PnL

+$0.9

Record

54%

6170-5233 (11403)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.41

Value

$4.36

PnL

-$1.05

Record

52%

3869-3521 (7390)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.28

Value

$2.39

PnL

-$0.6

Record

47%

2223-2507 (4730)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.04

Value

$2.08

PnL

+$1.04

Record

49%

18905-19321 (38226)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.