Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-08-15?

4 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 68¢ · $41K held · ended Aug 15

Yes68¢No32¢Ended Sat, Aug 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$41.0K

Combined PnL

$990.48

Smart Money Entry

68.7¢ → 68¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 16 top traders (25%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes68%

No32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$33.3K

Total Shares47,950

Combined PnL+$351.49

No12 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares22,760

Combined PnL+$638.99

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH theowalcott	Yesavg 68.8¢	$31.9K	$32.2K	+$303.23	50% 104-105 (209)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 31.6¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$62.77	50% 24765-24464 (49229)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Noavg 30¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$280	47% 2459-2755 (5214)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 31.2¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$55.7	53% 15870-14050 (29920)
us391CTR	Noavg 31¢	$733.92	$769.43	+$35.51	51% 1668-1614 (3282)
oieshfn345	Yesavg 67.4¢	$760.1	$766.36	+$6.26	57% 1667-1247 (2914)
poshposhCTR	Noavg 30.5¢	$549	$666	+$117	59% 9753-6736 (16489)
HRTradingCTR	Noavg 31¢	$280.45	$302.84	+$22.39	52% 3834-3490 (7324)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 31¢	$636.54	$277.91	+$15.93	58% 41344-29975 (71319)
GH ghostorder	Yesavg 67¢	$201	$202.5	+$1.5	62% 4338-2670 (7008)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Noavg 31.3¢	$155.08	$183.15	+$28.07	58% 28294-20870 (49164)
OD OddstormCTR	Noavg 31¢	$124.62	$148.74	+$24.12	38% 366-596 (962)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Yesavg 43¢	$77.4	$113.4	+$40.5	60% 871-573 (1444)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Noavg 31.2¢	$69.21	$67.64	-$1.57	49% 18884-19303 (38187)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Noavg 31.5¢	$10	$11.74	+$1.75	62% 1121-673 (1794)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 60¢	$3	$5.1	-$2.67	47% 2216-2502 (4718)

theowalcott

Yes

Invested

$31,905.44

Value

$32.2K

PnL

+$303.23

Record

50%

104-105 (209)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$2,312.89

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$62.77

Record

50%

24765-24464 (49229)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Invested

$1,200

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$280

Record

47%

2459-2755 (5214)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$1,385.47

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$55.7

Record

53%

15870-14050 (29920)

us391CTR

Invested

$733.92

Value

$769.43

PnL

+$35.51

Record

51%

1668-1614 (3282)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$760.1

Value

$766.36

PnL

+$6.26

Record

57%

1667-1247 (2914)

poshposhCTR

Invested

$549

Value

$666

PnL

+$117

Record

59%

9753-6736 (16489)

HRTradingCTR

Invested

$280.45

Value

$302.84

PnL

+$22.39

Record

52%

3834-3490 (7324)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$636.54

Value

$277.91

PnL

+$15.93

Record

58%

41344-29975 (71319)

ghostorder

Yes

Invested

$201

Value

$202.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

62%

4338-2670 (7008)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Invested

$155.08

Value

$183.15

PnL

+$28.07

Record

58%

28294-20870 (49164)

OddstormCTR

Invested

$124.62

Value

$148.74

PnL

+$24.12

Record

38%

366-596 (962)

lukibazdonauki754

Yes

Invested

$77.4

Value

$113.4

PnL

+$40.5

Record

60%

871-573 (1444)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Invested

$69.21

Value

$67.64

PnL

-$1.57

Record

49%

18884-19303 (38187)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$11.74

PnL

+$1.75

Record

62%

1121-673 (1794)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$2.67

Record

47%

2216-2502 (4718)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 16 top traders (25%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.