AD Cali vs. Boyacá Chicó FC: O/U 2.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (55%) · Under at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 2

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 55%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$281.96

Smart Money Entry

66.9¢ → 100¢

+49% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,504

Combined PnL+$288.1

Over5 traders

Total Value$255.64

Total Shares557

Combined PnL-$6.14

Under — 55%Over — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 64.9¢	$1.3K	$1.7K	+$487.98	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 76.5¢	$648	$428.51	-$219.5	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 63¢	$288.6	$307.1	+$18.5	49% 13032-13607 (26639)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Overavg 48¢	$159.84	$169.83	+$9.99	50% 19465-19831 (39296)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 58.3¢	$84.99	$70.25	-$10.02	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
PA pauleta23<$100	Underavg 98¢	$20	$20.31	+$0.31	66% 23472-11826 (35298)
RA rabbitfoot1CTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$9.18	$8.46	-$0.72	53% 1157-1008 (2165)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Overavg 31¢	$6.2	$7.1	+$0.9	59% 30682-21402 (52084)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 80¢	$2.08	$2.6	+$0.52	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
CA Cannae<$100	Underavg 37¢	$0.88	$1.17	+$0.29	53% 16124-14290 (30414)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 36¢	$6.29	$0.01	-$6.28	58% 10691-7671 (18362)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,254.7

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$487.98

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$648

Value

$428.51

PnL

-$219.5

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$288.6

Value

$307.1

PnL

+$18.5

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Over

Invested

$159.84

Value

$169.83

PnL

+$9.99

Record

50%

19465-19831 (39296)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$84.99

Value

$70.25

PnL

-$10.02

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

pauleta23<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$20.31

PnL

+$0.31

Record

66%

23472-11826 (35298)

rabbitfoot1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.18

Value

$8.46

PnL

-$0.72

Record

53%

1157-1008 (2165)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.2

Value

$7.1

PnL

+$0.9

Record

59%

30682-21402 (52084)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$2.08

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.52

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

Cannae<$100

Under

Invested

$0.88

Value

$1.17

PnL

+$0.29

Record

53%

16124-14290 (30414)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.29

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$6.28

Record

58%

10691-7671 (18362)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.