Spread: AD Cali (-1.5)
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold AD Cali (20%) · AD Cali at 55¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
AD Cali
5
AD Cali 20%
$3.0K
$10.23
Research grade
NeutralAD Cali at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on AD Cali. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388 | AD Caliavg 54.8¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$10.68 | 55% 1779-1467 (3246) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Boyacá Chicó FCavg 44.8¢ | $300.48 | $302.15 | +$1.67 | 58% 42700-31074 (73774) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Boyacá Chicó FCavg 45¢ | $78.31 | $76.57 | +$0 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Boyacá Chicó FCavg 45¢ | $38.13 | $37.28 | -$0.85 | 53% 16119-14285 (30404) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Boyacá Chicó FCavg 54¢ | $8.11 | $6.6 | -$1.28 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
Invested
$2,598.71
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$10.68
Record
55%
1779-1467 (3246)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$300.48
Value
$302.15
PnL
+$1.67
Record
58%
42700-31074 (73774)
Invested
$78.31
Value
$76.57
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
Invested
$38.13
Value
$37.28
PnL
-$0.85
Record
53%
16119-14285 (30404)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$8.11
Value
$6.6
PnL
-$1.28
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.