Will Boyacá Chicó FC win on 2026-11-01?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$3.5K
-$262.92
95.8¢ → 100¢
+4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 96.6¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$36.2 | 50% 33888-33462 (67350) |
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 93¢ | $938.33 | $934.44 | -$3.89 | 57% 1818-1368 (3186) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 97.3¢ | $497 | $502.47 | +$5.46 | 49% 13032-13607 (26639) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 99.4¢ | $444.13 | $407.48 | -$36.65 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
 HRTrading | Noavg 93¢ | $160.9 | $167.55 | +$6.66 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 6.5¢ | $409.89 | $140.39 | -$269.5 | 50% 25689-25525 (51214) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $18.3 | $7.8 | -$1.2 | 58% 42718-31089 (73807) |
Invested
$1,340.71
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$36.2
Record
50%
33888-33462 (67350)
oieshfn345Invested
$938.33
Value
$934.44
PnL
-$3.89
Record
57%
1818-1368 (3186)
Invested
$497
Value
$502.47
PnL
+$5.46
Record
49%
13032-13607 (26639)
Invested
$444.13
Value
$407.48
PnL
-$36.65
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
HRTradingInvested
$160.9
Value
$167.55
PnL
+$6.66
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
Invested
$409.89
Value
$140.39
PnL
-$269.5
Record
50%
25689-25525 (51214)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$18.3
Value
$7.8
PnL
-$1.2
Record
58%
42718-31089 (73807)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.