Will AD Cali win on 2026-11-01?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 79¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 2

Yes79¢No21¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$35.44

Smart Money Entry

80.6¢ → 78.5¢

-3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes79%

No22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,746

Combined PnL-$31.72

No3 traders

Total Value$85.14

Total Shares301

Combined PnL-$3.72

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345	Yesavg 76¢	$939.38	$900.75	-$38.62	57% 1818-1368 (3186)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 79.9¢	$671.13	$687.41	+$16.28	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 79.9¢	$561.46	$544.52	-$16.94
└ No leg	Noavg 17.3¢	$109.67	$142.9	+$33.23
LU LuckyLoo	Yesavg 89¢	$555.36	$561.6	+$6.24	49% 13032-13607 (26639)
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609ARB<$100	Yesavg 74¢	$243.59	$261.92	+$18.33	82% 2441-547 (2988)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 74¢	$193.82	$197.75	+$3.93
└ No leg	Noavg 19¢	$49.76	$64.17	+$14.41
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Noavg 10¢	$223.66	$231.81	+$8.15	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
└ No leg	Noavg 10¢	$155.38	$163.15	+$7.77
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 89¢	$68.28	$68.66	+$0.38
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 13.1¢	$239.18	$221.56	-$17.62	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
└ No leg	Noavg 13.1¢	$140.41	$123.21	-$17.19
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 88.9¢	$98.78	$98.35	-$0.43
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 24.5¢	$66.97	$62.23	-$4.74	58% 10691-7671 (18362)
LA lavendergooms<$100	Yesavg 76¢	$45.03	$30.83	+$0.79	53% 2639-2387 (5026)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 22.2¢	$20.76	$21.03	+$0.28	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
PA pauleta23<$100	Yesavg 75¢	$20	$19.87	-$0.13	66% 23472-11826 (35298)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 75.5¢	$7.55	$7.55	+$0	54% 6435-5416 (11851)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$1.13	$1.87	+$0.74	58% 42718-31089 (73807)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$939.38

Value

$900.75

PnL

-$38.62

Record

57%

1818-1368 (3186)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$671.13

Value

$687.41

PnL

+$16.28

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

Both legs:

Yes$561.4679.9¢-$16.94

No$109.6717.3¢+$33.23

LuckyLoo

Yes

Invested

$555.36

Value

$561.6

PnL

+$6.24

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$243.59

Value

$261.92

PnL

+$18.33

Record

82%

2441-547 (2988)

Both legs:

Yes$193.8274¢+$3.93

No$49.7619¢+$14.41

SnakeBallARB<$100

Invested

$223.66

Value

$231.81

PnL

+$8.15

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

Both legs:

No$155.3810¢+$7.77

Yes$68.2889¢+$0.38

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$239.18

Value

$221.56

PnL

-$17.62

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

Both legs:

No$140.4113.1¢-$17.19

Yes$98.7888.9¢-$0.43

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$66.97

Value

$62.23

PnL

-$4.74

Record

58%

10691-7671 (18362)

lavendergooms<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.03

Value

$30.83

PnL

+$0.79

Record

53%

2639-2387 (5026)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$20.76

Value

$21.03

PnL

+$0.28

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

pauleta23<$100

Yes

Invested

$20

Value

$19.87

PnL

-$0.13

Record

66%

23472-11826 (35298)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.55

Value

$7.55

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

6435-5416 (11851)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$1.13

Value

$1.87

PnL

+$0.74

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 79%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.