Will Fortaleza CEIF win on 2026-08-16?
3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 54¢ · $6K held · ended Aug 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 33%
1 arb excluded
$6.5K
$451.15
80.7¢ → 54¢
-33% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 80.7¢ | $5.7K | $6.1K | +$409.63 | 54% 56079-48206 (104285) |
 poshposhARB<$100 | Noavg 81.3¢ | $203.7 | $168.56 | -$35.14 | 59% 9732-6717 (16449) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 81.3¢ | $146.19 | $97.07 | -$49.13 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 37¢ | $57.51 | $71.5 | +$13.99 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 12¢ | $96.24 | $114.23 | +$25.88 | 58% 41297-29942 (71239) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 80.2¢ | $74.35 | $77.25 | +$2.9 | 54% 6150-5216 (11366) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Noavg 89.2¢ | $37.65 | $32.87 | -$4.78 | 67% 23223-11629 (34852) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $9.05 | $10.79 | +$1.74 | 53% 15864-14042 (29906) |
RO Rocky31CTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $23.2 | $6.38 | +$14.46 | 73% 1529-554 (2083) |
RO Rocko33CTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $5.34 | $5.74 | +$0.4 | 64% 1059-598 (1657) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $4 | $4.57 | +$0.57 | 52% 3772-3441 (7213) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $1.2 | $1.55 | +$0.35 | 47% 2205-2491 (4696) |
RN1Invested
$5,665.06
Value
$6.1K
PnL
+$409.63
Record
54%
56079-48206 (104285)
poshposhARB<$100Invested
$203.7
Value
$168.56
PnL
-$35.14
Record
59%
9732-6717 (16449)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$96.24
Value
$114.23
PnL
+$25.88
Record
58%
41297-29942 (71239)
Invested
$74.35
Value
$77.25
PnL
+$2.9
Record
54%
6150-5216 (11366)
Invested
$37.65
Value
$32.87
PnL
-$4.78
Record
67%
23223-11629 (34852)
Invested
$9.05
Value
$10.79
PnL
+$1.74
Record
53%
15864-14042 (29906)
Invested
$23.2
Value
$6.38
PnL
+$14.46
Record
73%
1529-554 (2083)
Invested
$5.34
Value
$5.74
PnL
+$0.4
Record
64%
1059-598 (1657)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$4
Value
$4.57
PnL
+$0.57
Record
52%
3772-3441 (7213)
Invested
$1.2
Value
$1.55
PnL
+$0.35
Record
47%
2205-2491 (4696)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.