Will América de Cali vs. Fortaleza CEIF end in a draw?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 68¢ · $148 held · ended Aug 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$148.1
-$4.76
76¢ → 67.5¢
-11% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $90 | $90 | +$0 | 54% 56079-48206 (104285) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $22.72 | $21.98 | -$0.74 | 59% 45158-31551 (76709) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $13.2 | $12.22 | -$0.98 | 52% 3772-3441 (7213) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.1¢ | $12.78 | $11.38 | -$1.4 | 58% 28272-20850 (49122) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $10.21 | $8.77 | -$1.44 | 59% 9732-6717 (16449) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $3.95 | $3.75 | -$0.2 | 47% 2205-2491 (4696) |
RN1<$100Invested
$90
Value
$90
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
56079-48206 (104285)
Invested
$22.72
Value
$21.98
PnL
-$0.74
Record
59%
45158-31551 (76709)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$13.2
Value
$12.22
PnL
-$0.98
Record
52%
3772-3441 (7213)
Invested
$12.78
Value
$11.38
PnL
-$1.4
Record
58%
28272-20850 (49122)
poshposh<$100Invested
$10.21
Value
$8.77
PnL
-$1.44
Record
59%
9732-6717 (16449)
Invested
$3.95
Value
$3.75
PnL
-$0.2
Record
47%
2205-2491 (4696)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.