Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (64%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will América de Cali win on 2026-08-16?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 36¢ · $396 held · ended Aug 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$396.08
$3.6
34.5¢ → 36¢
+4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 64%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 32.7¢ | $290.68 | $311.5 | +$20.82 | 59% 45116-31500 (76616) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 43.7¢ | $76.98 | $61.63 | -$17.99 | 58% 28255-20837 (49092) |
 us391CTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $10.18 | $9.91 | -$0.28 | 51% 1664-1611 (3275) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 31.7¢ | $7.12 | $7.87 | +$0.97 | 52% 3711-3383 (7094) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $3.5 | $3.6 | +$0.1 | 58% 41239-29904 (71143) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Noavg 32¢ | $1.6 | $1.58 | -$0.03 | 47% 2177-2478 (4655) |
Invested
$290.68
Value
$311.5
PnL
+$20.82
Record
59%
45116-31500 (76616)
Invested
$76.98
Value
$61.63
PnL
-$17.99
Record
58%
28255-20837 (49092)
us391CTR<$100Invested
$10.18
Value
$9.91
PnL
-$0.28
Record
51%
1664-1611 (3275)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$7.12
Value
$7.87
PnL
+$0.97
Record
52%
3711-3383 (7094)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.6
PnL
+$0.1
Record
58%
41239-29904 (71143)
Invested
$1.6
Value
$1.58
PnL
-$0.03
Record
47%
2177-2478 (4655)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.