Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
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2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 43¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 19
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$1.2K
$223.87
41.3¢ → 42.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
100h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Noavg 40.5¢ | $674.16 | $741.79 | +$67.63 | 47% 1360-1505 (2865) |
CR crckr | Yesavg 34.2¢ | $207.81 | $346.43 | +$148.32 | 31% 740-1614 (2354) |
 AnjunCTR<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $67.24 | $56.7 | -$10.55 | 55% 5199-4282 (9481) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Yesavg 43.2¢ | $23.65 | $31.35 | +$7.7 | 47% 4115-4662 (8777) |
 2B9S<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $0.62 | $11.4 | +$10.78 | 17% 4523-22225 (26748) |
Invested
$674.16
Value
$741.79
PnL
+$67.63
Record
47%
1360-1505 (2865)
Invested
$207.81
Value
$346.43
PnL
+$148.32
Record
31%
740-1614 (2354)
AnjunCTR<$100Invested
$67.24
Value
$56.7
PnL
-$10.55
Record
55%
5199-4282 (9481)
Invested
$23.65
Value
$31.35
PnL
+$7.7
Record
47%
4115-4662 (8777)
2B9S<$100Invested
$0.62
Value
$11.4
PnL
+$10.78
Record
17%
4523-22225 (26748)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.