Will The Red Clay Strays win Vocal Group of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 71¢ · $793 held · ends Nov 19

Yes71¢No29¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$793.4

Combined PnL

$293.01

Smart Money Entry

68.1¢ → 70.5¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes71%

No30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$741.91

Total Shares996

Combined PnL+$302.27

No4 traders

Total Value$51.5

Total Shares202

Combined PnL-$9.25

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

751h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Yesavg 67.8¢	$563.87	$615.02	+$22.53	49% 1246-1273 (2519)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 73.1¢	$58.17	$59.26	-$0.9	27% 6631-18348 (24979)
ST Started-with-20-USD	Yesavg 67¢	$464.35	$44.89	+$278.53	55% 638-526 (1164)
macrosteaksCTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$12.41	$26.98	-$3	55% 3434-2832 (6266)
AB ABC12345654321<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$17.1	$19.01	+$1.27	50% 1695-1680 (3375)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$22.4	$17.85	-$4.55	46% 10026-11725 (21751)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$5.97	$4.12	-$1.86	36% 2153-3855 (6008)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$2.7	$3.73	+$0.83	53% 7830-6946 (14776)
ME merodCTR<$100	Noavg 24¢	$2.4	$2.55	+$0.15	42% 2875-3956 (6831)

SnapElectionAvoider

Yes

Invested

$563.87

Value

$615.02

PnL

+$22.53

Record

49%

1246-1273 (2519)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.17

Value

$59.26

PnL

-$0.9

Record

27%

6631-18348 (24979)

Started-with-20-USD

Yes

Invested

$464.35

Value

$44.89

PnL

+$278.53

Record

55%

638-526 (1164)

macrosteaksCTR<$100

Invested

$12.41

Value

$26.98

PnL

-$3

Record

55%

3434-2832 (6266)

ABC12345654321<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.1

Value

$19.01

PnL

+$1.27

Record

50%

1695-1680 (3375)

god83743894CTR<$100

Invested

$22.4

Value

$17.85

PnL

-$4.55

Record

46%

10026-11725 (21751)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Invested

$5.97

Value

$4.12

PnL

-$1.86

Record

36%

2153-3855 (6008)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.7

Value

$3.73

PnL

+$0.83

Record

53%

7830-6946 (14776)

merodCTR<$100

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0.15

Record

42%

2875-3956 (6831)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

751h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.