Will “Choosin' Texas” by Ella Langley win Single of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 94¢ · $314 held · ends Nov 19
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$313.77
$3.91
89.6¢ → 94¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH TheWindKnowsmyName | Yesavg 89.6¢ | $141.69 | $178.9 | +$1.33 | 4% 5-124 (129) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100 | Yesavg 89.5¢ | $85.49 | $89.81 | +$4.32 | 39% 1005-1573 (2578) |
 dips.<$100 | Yesavg 90.1¢ | $46.68 | $45.06 | -$1.74 | 41% 159-232 (391) |
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.