Will Tucker Wetmore win New Artist of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (13%) · No at 56¢ · $915 held · ends Nov 19

Yes45¢No55¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 13%

Total Value

$914.51

Combined PnL

-$18.82

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$393.31

Total Shares1,063

Combined PnL-$207.29

Yes7 traders

Total Value$521.2

Total Shares980

Combined PnL+$188.46

No — 13%Yes — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

140h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Noavg 66¢	$600.6	$393.31	-$207.29	48% 1386-1529 (2915)
GA GaditimaCTR	Yesavg 40.7¢	$182.65	$282.66	+$100.01	47% 8644-9781 (18425)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR	Yesavg 44.1¢	$101.56	$99.91	+$1.34	23% 8560-28980 (37540)
HoshinoAICTR<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$61.02	$49.34	-$11.12	7% 2-26 (28)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.2¢	$52.4	$37.5	+$104.42	41% 3605-5119 (8724)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$30.62	$25.24	-$5.39	50% 355-348 (703)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 53.6¢	$24.1	$20.25	-$3.85	15% 4992-29310 (34302)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$3.25	$6.3	+$3.05	48% 5145-5670 (10815)

SnapElectionAvoider

Invested

$600.6

Value

$393.31

PnL

-$207.29

Record

48%

1386-1529 (2915)

GaditimaCTR

Yes

Invested

$182.65

Value

$282.66

PnL

+$100.01

Record

47%

8644-9781 (18425)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR

Yes

Invested

$101.56

Value

$99.91

PnL

+$1.34

Record

23%

8560-28980 (37540)

HoshinoAICTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.02

Value

$49.34

PnL

-$11.12

Record

2-26 (28)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.4

Value

$37.5

PnL

+$104.42

Record

41%

3605-5119 (8724)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.62

Value

$25.24

PnL

-$5.39

Record

50%

355-348 (703)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.1

Value

$20.25

PnL

-$3.85

Record

15%

4992-29310 (34302)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.25

Value

$6.3

PnL

+$3.05

Record

48%

5145-5670 (10815)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

140h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.