Will Stephen Wilson Jr. win New Artist of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?

2 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 69¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 19

Yes69¢No31¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 17%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$23.32

Smart Money Entry

46.5¢ → 68.5¢

+47% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 12 top traders (17%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes69%

No32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$909.55

Total Shares1,596

Combined PnL-$185.64

No10 traders

Total Value$758.23

Total Shares1,570

Combined PnL+$208.97

Yes — 17%No — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

410h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Yesavg 47.2¢	$767.74	$874.49	-$189.23	50% 1253-1274 (2527)
macrosteaksCTR	Noavg 53¢	$20.68	$601	+$194.92	55% 3435-2832 (6267)
WA WarriorHCTR	Noavg 64¢	$117.84	$48.53	-$16.28	17% 1066-5342 (6408)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 63.7¢	$93.01	$42.8	+$0.72	15% 430-2354 (2784)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38.5¢	$15.42	$22.8	+$13.02
└ No leg	Noavg 63.7¢	$25.47	$20	-$12.3
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Noavg 61¢	$48.19	$39.5	-$8.69	24% 692-2171 (2863)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 29.2¢	$17.94	$35.06	+$3.59	27% 6723-18550 (25273)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 43.8¢	$40.5	$17.96	+$18.25	41% 6741-9586 (16327)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Noavg 58.1¢	$136.76	$15.78	+$37.64	45% 2406-2980 (5386)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Noavg 64¢	$27.52	$12.18	-$13.95	25% 1631-4971 (6602)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Noavg 57.7¢	$53.01	$10.52	-$2.67	24% 304-947 (1251)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$10	$10	+$0	16% 267-1368 (1635)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$1.7	$1.7	+$0	29% 2289-5648 (7937)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Noavg 62¢	$1.33	$1.08	-$0.26	39% 5316-8317 (13633)

SnapElectionAvoider

Yes

Invested

$767.74

Value

$874.49

PnL

-$189.23

Record

50%

1253-1274 (2527)

macrosteaksCTR

Invested

$20.68

Value

$601

PnL

+$194.92

Record

55%

3435-2832 (6267)

WarriorHCTR

Invested

$117.84

Value

$48.53

PnL

-$16.28

Record

17%

1066-5342 (6408)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$93.01

Value

$42.8

PnL

+$0.72

Record

15%

430-2354 (2784)

Both legs:

Yes$15.4238.5¢+$13.02

No$25.4763.7¢-$12.3

SPLPBCTR<$100

Invested

$48.19

Value

$39.5

PnL

-$8.69

Record

24%

692-2171 (2863)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.94

Value

$35.06

PnL

+$3.59

Record

27%

6723-18550 (25273)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$40.5

Value

$17.96

PnL

+$18.25

Record

41%

6741-9586 (16327)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Invested

$136.76

Value

$15.78

PnL

+$37.64

Record

45%

2406-2980 (5386)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Invested

$27.52

Value

$12.18

PnL

-$13.95

Record

25%

1631-4971 (6602)

lpgbCTR<$100

Invested

$53.01

Value

$10.52

PnL

-$2.67

Record

24%

304-947 (1251)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$10

PnL

+$0

Record

16%

267-1368 (1635)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Invested

$1.7

Value

$1.7

PnL

+$0

Record

29%

2289-5648 (7937)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Invested

$1.33

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$0.26

Record

39%

5316-8317 (13633)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 12 top traders (17%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

410h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.