Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (81%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Emily Ann Roberts win New Artist of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 19¢ · $21 held · ends Nov 19

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$20.86

Combined PnL

-$1.03

Research grade

AvoidYes at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 81%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$8.13

Total Shares10

Combined PnL+$0

Yes4 traders

Total Value$12.73

Total Shares68

Combined PnL-$1.03

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
broskye<$100	Noavg 81.3¢	$8.13	$8.13	+$0	42% 174-238 (412)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$5.5	$5.42	-$0.08	39% 1043-1627 (2670)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.7¢	$4.14	$3.74	-$0.4	57% 60-45 (105)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.6¢	$3.19	$2.63	-$0.55	47% 66-74 (140)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.7¢	$0.94	$0.94	+$0	4% 5-125 (130)

broskye<$100

Invested

$8.13

Value

$8.13

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

174-238 (412)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.5

Value

$5.42

PnL

-$0.08

Record

39%

1043-1627 (2670)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.14

Value

$3.74

PnL

-$0.4

Record

57%

60-45 (105)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.19

Value

$2.63

PnL

-$0.55

Record

47%

66-74 (140)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.94

Value

$0.94

PnL

+$0

Record

5-125 (130)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 81%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.0%

19.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$377.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

477.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.