Will First Vienna win on 2026-11-14?

14 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 100¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

-$61.52

Smart Money Entry

98.7¢ → 99.8¢

+1% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 17 top traders (82%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares7,432

Combined PnL+$45.38

Yes3 traders

Total Value$18.41

Total Shares575

Combined PnL-$106.9

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LuccaF7	Noavg 98.9¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	+$21.05	67% 16-8 (24)
DI dip.	Noavg 98.2¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$36.72	— 6-0 (6)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99¢	$237.64	$238.8	+$1.16	53% 7043-6178 (13221)
E4 e46m3	Noavg 98¢	$224.54	$227.06	+$2.52	42% 2632-3660 (6292)
bot-rapin	Noavg 99.1¢	$198.2	$199.47	+$1.3	100% 39-0 (39)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 98.7¢	$194.2	$148.65	-$19.05	29% 3185-7958 (11143)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658	Noavg 98.8¢	$104.11	$104.46	+$0.35	57% 703-521 (1224)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$79.1	$79.34	+$0.24	51% 807-768 (1575)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$65.67	$66.13	+$0.47	51% 771-729 (1500)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$24.88	$24.99	+$0.11	49% 787-828 (1615)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 33.3¢	$87.54	$15.22	-$72.32	49% 755-800 (1555)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$13.84	$13.97	+$0.13	46% 1098-1303 (2401)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$13.83	$13.96	+$0.13	50% 720-711 (1431)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$13.82	$13.95	+$0.13	58% 725-518 (1243)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$11.96	$12.07	+$0.12	63% 739-442 (1181)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$5.66	$2.55	-$3.11	14% 82-514 (596)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 33.3¢	$48.78	$0.64	-$31.47	17% 88-431 (519)

LuccaF7

Invested

$4,055.86

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$21.05

Record

67%

16-8 (24)

dip.

Invested

$2,142.85

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$36.72

Record

—

6-0 (6)

cigarettes

Invested

$237.64

Value

$238.8

PnL

+$1.16

Record

53%

7043-6178 (13221)

e46m3

Invested

$224.54

Value

$227.06

PnL

+$2.52

Record

42%

2632-3660 (6292)

bot-rapin

Invested

$198.2

Value

$199.47

PnL

+$1.3

Record

100%

39-0 (39)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$194.2

Value

$148.65

PnL

-$19.05

Record

29%

3185-7958 (11143)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658

Invested

$104.11

Value

$104.46

PnL

+$0.35

Record

57%

703-521 (1224)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$79.1

Value

$79.34

PnL

+$0.24

Record

51%

807-768 (1575)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$65.67

Value

$66.13

PnL

+$0.47

Record

51%

771-729 (1500)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$24.88

Value

$24.99

PnL

+$0.11

Record

49%

787-828 (1615)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$87.54

Value

$15.22

PnL

-$72.32

Record

49%

755-800 (1555)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$13.84

Value

$13.97

PnL

+$0.13

Record

46%

1098-1303 (2401)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$13.83

Value

$13.96

PnL

+$0.13

Record

50%

720-711 (1431)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$13.82

Value

$13.95

PnL

+$0.13

Record

58%

725-518 (1243)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$11.96

Value

$12.07

PnL

+$0.12

Record

63%

739-442 (1181)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.66

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$3.11

Record

14%

82-514 (596)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.78

Value

$0.64

PnL

-$31.47

Record

17%

88-431 (519)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 17 top traders (82%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.