Will PAOK vs. First Vienna end in a draw?

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 99¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 14

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

$176.82

Smart Money Entry

97.9¢ → 99.5¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares6,501

Combined PnL+$190.14

No8 traders

Total Value$11.35

Total Shares1,516

Combined PnL-$13.32

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

57h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DI dip.	Yesavg 98¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$28.66	— 6-0 (6)
LuccaF7	Yesavg 99.1¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$7.75	67% 16-8 (24)
bot-rapin	Yesavg 99.3¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$1.94	100% 39-0 (39)
GO gotozer0	Yesavg 98.7¢	$188.07	$188.84	+$0.76	57% 12-9 (21)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Yesavg 33.3¢	$22.57	$62.84	+$138.06	29% 3185-7958 (11143)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Yesavg 34.3¢	$6.85	$19.82	+$12.97	48% 285-304 (589)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 3¢	$9	$3.9	-$5.1	14% 82-514 (596)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 0.9¢	$5.89	$3.46	-$2.43	53% 7043-6178 (13221)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 1.3¢	$2.08	$1.44	-$0.64	50% 720-711 (1431)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 0.8¢	$1.69	$1.1	-$0.58	63% 739-442 (1181)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 1.2¢	$1.31	$0.61	-$0.7	46% 1098-1303 (2401)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 1.3¢	$0.59	$0.41	-$0.18	51% 807-768 (1575)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 1.3¢	$0.87	$0.37	-$0.5	58% 725-518 (1243)
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100	Noavg 65¢	$3.25	$0.07	-$3.19	52% 23-21 (44)

dip.

Yes

Invested

$2,480.84

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$28.66

Record

—

6-0 (6)

LuccaF7

Yes

Invested

$2,279.6

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$7.75

Record

67%

16-8 (24)

bot-rapin

Yes

Invested

$1,385.75

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$1.94

Record

100%

39-0 (39)

gotozer0

Yes

Invested

$188.07

Value

$188.84

PnL

+$0.76

Record

57%

12-9 (21)

qwen300.fund<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.57

Value

$62.84

PnL

+$138.06

Record

29%

3185-7958 (11143)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.85

Value

$19.82

PnL

+$12.97

Record

48%

285-304 (589)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$3.9

PnL

-$5.1

Record

14%

82-514 (596)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$5.89

Value

$3.46

PnL

-$2.43

Record

53%

7043-6178 (13221)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$2.08

Value

$1.44

PnL

-$0.64

Record

50%

720-711 (1431)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$1.69

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$0.58

Record

63%

739-442 (1181)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$1.31

Value

$0.61

PnL

-$0.7

Record

46%

1098-1303 (2401)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$0.59

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$0.18

Record

51%

807-768 (1575)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$0.87

Value

$0.37

PnL

-$0.5

Record

58%

725-518 (1243)

BlackMamba08CTR<$100

Invested

$3.25

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$3.19

Record

52%

23-21 (44)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

57h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.