Will BK Hacken win on 2026-11-12?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.1K
-$393.43
98¢ → 99¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 98¢ | $980 | $520 | -$460 | 53% 5614-5046 (10660) |
CA canupdatelateronCTR | Yesavg 2¢ | $30 | $332.14 | +$318.3 | — 3-1 (4) |
KO korda77 | Noavg 98¢ | $479.37 | $254.28 | -$225.09 | 84% 38-7 (45) |
LU lukibazdonauki754<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $51.63 | $27.37 | -$24.26 | 56% 92-72 (164) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $5.01 | $2.63 | -$2.38 | 46% 329-379 (708) |
Invested
$980
Value
$520
PnL
-$460
Record
53%
5614-5046 (10660)
Invested
$30
Value
$332.14
PnL
+$318.3
Record
—
3-1 (4)
Invested
$479.37
Value
$254.28
PnL
-$225.09
Record
84%
38-7 (45)
Invested
$51.63
Value
$27.37
PnL
-$24.26
Record
56%
92-72 (164)
Invested
$5.01
Value
$2.63
PnL
-$2.38
Record
46%
329-379 (708)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.