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HaradwaithCTR<$100YesYesYes
balthazarCTR<$100YesNo
CoinTrick<$100No
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $60 by June 30, 2027?
Resolved No. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$12.53
Smart Money Signal
Yes
4 of 6 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,817
Combined PnL-$12.53
No2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 67%No — 33%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $3.46 | — | -$3.46 | — 2-0 (2) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $8.19 | — | -$8.19 | — 1-1 (2) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.5¢ | $0.88 | — | -$0.88 | — 0-1 (1) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 47-37 (84) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 97.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 15% 119-691 (810) |
CoinTrick<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | — 16-0 (16) |
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$3.46
Value
—
PnL
-$3.46
Record
—
2-0 (2)
0X
0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100Invested
$8.19
Value
—
PnL
-$8.19
Record
—
1-1 (2)
WA
WarriorHCTR<$100Invested
$0.88
Value
—
PnL
-$0.88
Record
—
0-1 (1)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
47-37 (84)
KL
klli27<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
15%
119-691 (810)
CoinTrick<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
—
16-0 (16)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xf4f57b88...e58bfc
Slug
claude-fable-5pt2-output-token-price-debut-at-least-60