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HaradwaithYesNoNo
CoinTrick<$100YesNo
ENORMOUZ<$100Yes
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Yes — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Yes
Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $40 by June 30, 2027?
Resolved Yes. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 50%
Total Value
$160.27
Combined PnL
-$16.37
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes3 traders
Total Value$160.27
Total Shares160
Combined PnL-$13.67
No3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares20
Combined PnL-$2.7
Yes — 50%No — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Haradwaith | Yes | $160.27 | $160.27 | -$13.67 | — 2-0 (2) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Noavg 13.5¢ | $2.7 | — | -$2.7 | — 1-1 (2) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Noavg 8.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | — 0-1 (1) |
CoinTrick<$100 | Yesavg 99.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | — 16-0 (16) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 14.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | — 0-3 (3) |
ENORMOUZ<$100 | Yesavg 98.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | — |
HaradwaithInvested
$160.27
Value
$160.27
PnL
-$13.67
Record
—
2-0 (2)
0X
0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100Invested
$2.7
Value
—
PnL
-$2.7
Record
—
1-1 (2)
WA
WarriorHCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
—
0-1 (1)
CoinTrick<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
—
16-0 (16)
SU
SulkingCryptoCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
—
0-3 (3)
ENORMOUZ<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
—
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xe4434964...1f4dbd
Slug
claude-fable-5pt2-output-token-price-debut-at-least-40