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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
Resolved Yes. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
8
No 80%
Total Value
$2.7K
Combined PnL
$0
Smart Money Signal
No
6 of 8 top traders (80%)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x55018620...ddd329
Slug
china-ballistic-missile-launch-by-december-31-20260706145934670