Will Ningbo Professional FC win on 2026-10-31?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31

Yes99¢No1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$59.44

Smart Money Entry

73¢ → 99¢

+36% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$927.12

Total Shares990

Combined PnL+$71.98

No3 traders

Total Value$75.13

Total Shares340

Combined PnL-$12.54

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345	Yesavg 73.6¢	$781.93	$867.04	+$85.11	57% 1719-1291 (3010)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$69.36	$55.08	-$14.28	58% 28668-21156 (49824)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$33.66	$38.15	+$4.49	54% 56561-48730 (105291)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 28.2¢	$43.74	$23.51	-$20.23	53% 4540-4093 (8633)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$53.73	$13.48	+$3.2	58% 41846-30383 (72229)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$3.85	$5	+$1.15	54% 6276-5317 (11593)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$781.93

Value

$867.04

PnL

+$85.11

Record

57%

1719-1291 (3010)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$69.36

Value

$55.08

PnL

-$14.28

Record

58%

28668-21156 (49824)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$33.66

Value

$38.15

PnL

+$4.49

Record

54%

56561-48730 (105291)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$43.74

Value

$23.51

PnL

-$20.23

Record

53%

4540-4093 (8633)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$53.73

Value

$13.48

PnL

+$3.2

Record

58%

41846-30383 (72229)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.85

Value

PnL

+$1.15

Record

54%

6276-5317 (11593)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.